As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has proposed, the opinion on electoral reform that will be analyzed in Commissions of the Chamber of Deputies, does not change a comma of the initiative that the president sent to that sovereignty last April, which eliminates -de facto- the possibility of an agreement with the opposition parties.
The document, which has an extension of 938 pages, does not take into account in the first 836 pages, the more than 100 electoral reform initiatives made by legislators of all parties and, likewise, completely rejects the opinions of experts who participated in various forums summoned especially by the same House of Representatives.
A) Yes, between next November 28 and 29, The Political-Electoral Reform, Constitutional Points, and Governance and Population Commissions of the Chamber of Deputies will analyze and approve the opinion that reproduces without any change what was proposed by the president.
Immediately, the opinion will be turned over for its vote in plenary, between November 29 and 30, where it will foreseeably be rejected, since Morena and her allies, the Labor and Green Ecologist parties, do not have the qualified majority that is required for any constitutional reform.
In Commissions this initiative will not have problems for its approval, since in these the official party is the majority. On the other hand, the proposal with which an attempt is made to reform 18 articles of the Magna Carta, It will not pass in the plenary session of the Lower House, as the opposition has advanced, for this requires the vote in favor of two thirds of the deputies present.
Since the federal Executive and his party already know that this will be the fate of his initiative, which mainly proposes the disappearance of the INE, and reducing the number of deputies and senators, making them all multi-member, it is planned to present a plan B to change only secondary electoral laws.
This last package of reforms could reach the plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies between December 7 and 14. For its approval, only a simple majority is required, since it would not be a constitutional reform, although with this Yes there is a risk of violating the Constitution, a scenario that already occurred when Morena approved – last September – to militarize the National Guard, despite the fact that this measure contradicts article 21 of the magna carta.
The proposal that the Committees of the Lower House plan to approve proposes reducing the number of deputies from 500 to 300, but make them all multi-member, that they would be elected indirectly through party lists.
The same would happen in the Senate, which would go from 128 to 96 legislators, who would also be proportionally represented, elected through the list system in each of the country’s federal entities.
It is also planned to disappear the National Electoral Institute (INE), to replace it, with a completely different structure, by a National Institute of Elections and Consultations (INEC).
This body would have seven directors who would last six years, instead of the current eleven who occupy their position for nine years. The election of these officials would be through the vote of the citizens, based on proposals made by the federal Executive Power, the Chambers of Congress and the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation.
The initiative also proposes centralizing state and municipal elections; disappear local electoral bodies; limit the number of regidurías in the Town Halls; Y increase private funding for political parties, institutes that would only receive a public budget for their campaigns when it is an electoral period.
democratic risk
In summary, we are facing a proposal that cancels the mechanisms of direct representation in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate; to the electoral authorities for the benefit of the party currently in power, in addition to opening the door to the reception of resources of illicit origin in the parties.
The electoral body that is proposed would be a politicized institution, since to be a councilor one must first be proposed by the president, by the majority party in Congress or by the Supreme Court. Right away, Applicants must campaign to get the vote of citizensregardless of whether they have the capacity and preparation to perform in the position.
In addition, the states of the country would only have federal deputies depending on the total number of inhabitants. For example, in Aguascalientes only 3 deputies could be elected; while in Chiapas it would be 13 or in Mexico City 22, reducing the opportunities for opposition parties to reach a seat.
Likewise, an attempt is being made to substantially modify the system of democratic representation that we have experienced in our country, at least since the 1990s, since deputies and senators would no longer be elected by direct vote of the citizens, but would come to Congress from the global number of votes obtained by the lists that the parties would have to propose.
The latter would allow Morena to become the hegemonic majority in the federal Legislative Branch, ignoring the political and partisan plurality that we have, which in general terms means back in the democratic opening that Mexico has experienced since the year 2000, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled the country for 71 years, lost the presidency.
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surya palaces Journalist and lawyer, specialist in legal analysis and human rights. She has been a reporter, radio host and editor.