Funcas, the analysis center dedicated to economic and social research, has forecast for the consumer price index in Spain, a close of 5.2% for December of this year given the high volatility of energy during the previous year, when the CPI reached the figure of 6% year-on-year.
Likewise, according to a review by Noticias Bancarias, Funcas would have estimated, in a context in which the gas price was 20% higher than that discounted in futures, the general rate at 4.7%, and in an alternative scenario in which it was 15% cheaper, it could reach 3.9%.
That said, they noted that the expected average annual rate for the underlying index has risen from 6.2% to 6.5% by December 2023. However, for this month they expect a “significant drop”due to a “strong step effect” throughout the year in different ways, specifically, “favorable in the central months of the year and unfavorable in the final months”.
In this sense, for Funcas taking other forecasts into consideration, the result for the average annual rate of the general index has risen one tenth, to 4.3%, while the underlying CPI would reach 6.5%. According to them, “the result was higher than expected in practically all the components of the CPI”, when they expected a drop in inflation, both headline and core, “and the direction has been the opposite”.
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