The estimate was issued following a deficit of 7.1 million bags in the 2021/22 season, as coffee consumption recovered and economic growth improved as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, the ICO said. its acronym in English) in a monthly report.
The intergovernmental body forecasts production to increase by just 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23, despite Brazil, the top global producer, being in a “high year” of its two-year growing cycle.
Although consumption is also projected to grow 1.7% to 178.5 million bags, the figure is modest compared to last season’s post-COVID 4.2% increase.
“The slowdown in economic growth for 2022 and 2023, together with the dramatic increase in the cost of living, will have an impact on coffee consumption for the 2022/23 cycle,” the agency said.
Also, coffee consumption in offices has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, “there are a lot of free cups of coffee that are no longer being handed out,” Bloomberg noted in a note, citing analyst Judy Ganes.
The report also noted that world exports of green or unroasted coffee beans fell 2.9% in April compared to the previous year, to 9.21 million bags, raising the cumulative total of exports for the first five months of the year. coffee to 64.95 million bags, 6.4% less.
With information from Reuters.