So far in the six-year term, The Treasury has always made lower forecasts to those raised from the presidency and from the direction of Pemex. Despite this, the state company has not been able to meet the objectives set by the agency either. By 2023, he proposed that the state and private companies could jointly produce an average of 1,851 million barrels per day, but last year’s production averaged 1,843 million barrels per day.
Since the beginning of the six-year term, analysts and rating agencies said that a production of more than 2 million barrels per day would be a difficult objective for the state company to meet: the administration has increased investment resources, but it has done so mainly in the refining division and the production and exploration segment have focused on mature assets, which do not provide a significant amount of oil to meet targets.
So far in the six-year period, Pemex has not announced a new great discovery that could shore up its crude production. Zama, the field that could support national oil production, will take a few years to become productive. An analysis by the consulting firm Welligence suggests that it will be between 2026 and 2027.
The state company also envisions a more difficult economic environment for the state oil company. It has placed its forecasts on the price of the Mexican export mix at 56.3 dollars per barrel. Thus, it is far from the high oil prices that gave a slight boost to Pemex’s finances in recent months.
The drop in the price forecast for the Mexican mix would also reduce the state company’s contributions to the treasury and put pressure on public finances during an election year, where spending related to social programs is expected to increase.