Less than a month before the regional elections in Castilla y León February 13th, with which the PP intends to continue the cycle of victories that began in March in Madrid, the socialists of this community claim their victory in 2019 and point to the local problems to convey that Alfonso Fernández Mañueco does not have a sure victory ahead of him. The so-called ‘meat war’, they say, is a “Madrid debate” and the socialist candidate, Luis Tudanca, has barely been asked about it.
The PSOE faces the polls that predict a secure majority of PP and Vox, launching himself for the moderate vote of Ciudadanos, which collapses, from 12 to probably a single deputy for Valladolid. Tudanca seeks this electoral loot because he understands that many of the voters who supported the promise of Cs “for change” did not agree with the support that Francisco Igea finally gave the PP, forced by Albert Rivera.
This is the trump card -the bite to Cs- to face elections that Genoa believes it has won and that in Moncloa too They come with many possibilities of a sum of PP and Vox. On December 20, the day that Mañueco called the elections, the polls of the popular leadership reflected that they moved in a range of between 38 and 40 prosecutors, three of the absolute majority in the lowest estimate. The PSOE was attributed between 30 and 31, far from the 35 it obtained in 2019.
Not even the CIS came close
But the Socialists are rebelling against these numbers for various reasons, according to party sources. The first is that in the previous elections practically no poll came close to the number of parliamentarians who ultimately achieved (35). Not even the CIS, which in its pre-election poll gave the PSOE between 30 and 31 seats. At that time, they argue, there was already a fatigue with popular politics that did not appear in the data. That discomfort, they maintain, has increased because Mañueco is no longer any promise but is responsible for his own management. He also does not have, they add, the “charisma” of his predecessor, Juan Vicente Herrera.
From the prism of the PSOE “The biggest problem here is health,” they maintain. To the balance of these almost three years, which “has forgotten the rural world” and “has stirred up the toilets”, the “paralysis” of the ministry has been added due to the abrupt departure of its head, Verónica Casado, in the midst of the sixth wave. The electoral advance caused Cs to leave the Government and take over from other councilors in these weeks almost off.
Municipal vote carryover
To this is added, they indicate, the cases of corruption against the PP, both those inherited from the Herrera administration and the problem of the primaries that “splashes” directly to Mañueco. And another issue of vital importance, which, the sources consulted underline, nobody is taking into account: the non-coincidence with the municipal elections for the first time in Castilla y León (in fact, elections had never been advanced before). The vote of the PP, they assure, is much more rural than urban, the party in the region is very capillarized and the voter does not drag himself the same if he does not have to go out and vote for his mayor. And February, in the middle of winter, is a strange month for an electoral appointment.
However, although there are three and a half weeks left for the elections, the demographic studies carried out by the PP and PSOE suggest that Mañueco will reach the 41 seats of the absolute majority with the Vox attorneys. The popular underline that “things are going well” although they still dance a few seats in their predictions as a result of the fact that there are nine constituencies.
According to different sources consulted, the triumph of the formations of the emptied Spain will be relative. Although they have presented a list in Burgos, Palencia, Salamanca, Valladolid and Soria, only in the latter province, where the platform is consolidated Soria Now, have rendering options. Union of the Leonese People, could go from one to two. By Avila, probably repeat deputy, United We Can, which now does appear together with Izquierda Unida, between two and three. And Vox, climb from a single attorney to ten.
The fear of Vox
Vox is one of the keys to these elections. The Genoa soundings of a month ago they granted him between seven and eight attorneys. But in some polls they are above 10 and rising. Popular sources acknowledge that “he is still strong and a lot”. His rise is what explains the truce imposed in the PP between Pablo Casado and Isabel Díaz Ayuso. The data shows that the questioning of Ayuso as president of the Madrid party pushes popular voters to Vox. With her reigning in the popular universe they stay, without her in a starring role, they leave.
The elections in Castilla y León will be the first test to check if those of Santiago Abascal They will require the PP to have a presence in the regional governments. Vox does not want to reveal what it will do. The popular ones try to convey that they will not accept it with the aim even of an electoral repetition. But obviously it all depends on the result. With the far-right formation in 10 seats or more, his claim would have an endorsement. This situation worries the PP a lot because it could reverse what they consider to be the beginning of their winning streak, after Madrid. “Putting Vox in the Government of Castilla y León could alter the result in Andalusia and harm Pablo Casado,” they point out in the PP. In this sense, the result of Mañueco is crucial and, although negative for the PSOE, it could benefit Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz in the future if the electorate takes notice of the idea that the extreme right will occupy ministries. Not everything is, far from it, ‘the war of the meat’.