Eduardo Ramos, an analyst at ATFX, agreed that the continuous rise in interest rates has been promoting carry trading since last year, which also greatly helps the attractiveness of investment in Mexico due to the issue of capital movement. The specialist added that nearshoring strategies have led to an injection of investment, such as Tesla and Mattel, which has also strengthened the exchange rate.
Would it go below 18 pesos?
The lowest level reached by the exchange rate in the quarter was 17.9709 units per dollar. This Friday, the peso was close to breaking that floor and analysts believe that it could surprise in the coming weeks.
Salazar commented that if this concern about the banking issue really dissipates, there are high possibilities that the currency will remain at the floor of 18 pesos and that it could be breaking 17.90 units. However, despite the fact that there is no monetary policy decision in April, in the coming months the behavior will be subject to these events.
Although the margin of appreciation already looks short, analysts expect that during the first half of the year, the currency will be in a range of 17.80 and 17.90 units.
“Today it pierced the floor of the psychological floor of 18 pesos, which opens the possibility of a greater appreciation in the coming days and in the months in which there is no monetary policy decision, lateral movements are observed, as is the case of April” Quiroz mentioned.
For his part, Ramos said that we could be seeing the levels of the peso at levels of 17.92 and a very optimistic scenario would be 17.12 units. “For that to happen, it would be necessary for Banxico to further increase rates to encourage the field of investment, which is somewhat guaranteed thanks to the latest interest rate increase. But the optimal range in which it is observed is between 17.90 and 18 pesos per dollar for this second quarter,” he concluded.