Humans have surpassed almost all the limits that make the Earth a habitable place. According to a study, in which more than 40 scientists from all over the world participated, we are in the “danger zone”. It’s not just about climate change. The research offers evidence that our planet is facing serious crises related to the availability of water, the maintenance of ecosystems, the nutrient load of our soils, and aerosol pollution.
The report, carried out by the Earth Commission organization and published in the magazine Natureestablished eight gauges analyzed from two perspectives: security and justice. The first focuses on the stability of the conditions of the planet. The second, in how the current conditions are affecting more or less certain groups of people, depending on their ethnicity, region or even age.
In other words, these “safe and fair” benchmarks are the planet’s equivalent to the vital signs of the human body. Instead of pulse, temperature, and blood pressure, they look at water flow, phosphorus use, and the condition of the soil. Everything has a security threshold. And of the eight limits analyzed, seven have already been exceeded.
“Our doctor would say that the Earth is really very sick right now.. She’s sick in terms of many different areas or systems,” Earth Commission co-chair Joyeeta Gupta, an environment researcher at the University of Amsterdam, told a news conference. “And this disease is also affecting people living on Earth.”
The limits that indicate that the Earth got sick
The limits analyzed to assess the health of the Earth are based on a synthesis of previous studies carried out by universities and UN scientific groups. Among them, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
A “safe and fair” limit is that between 50% and 60% of the world contains predominantly natural ecosystems. The planet is in red in this variable: only between 45% and 50% of the planet has not been altered by humans. And so with almost all indicators.
According to the study, in a third of the planet there is already an excess of extraction of surface water resources. The limit outside the “danger zone” is 20%. The direct consequence is that water quality and freshwater species are being affected. The problem is replicated in groundwater systems. In this case, the safe limit indicates that aquifers should not be depleted faster than they can be replenished. The reality is that the 47% of river basins are depleting at an accelerated rate.
In relation to the climate, the barrier in terms of “safety” of 1.5 °C has not been violated. However, yes the “fair” limit was exceeded where people are affected, which the group placed at 1 °C. The global average temperature is around 1.2°C above pre-industrial reference levels. The scientific community has alerted that the threshold of 1.5C could be surpassed in 2027.
It’s not a death sentence
Still, the researchers say, this is not a terminal diagnosis. The planet can recover if they are taken forceful measures, such as reconsidering the use of coal, oil and natural gas. “We must not only address the symptoms, but also the causes,” said Gupta, co-chair of the Earth Commission.
The report is compelling, provocative and scientifically sound in methodology, Indy Burke, dean of the Yale School of the Environment, told PA. “It’s key to identifying the dimensions in which the planet approaches the edge of the limits that would throw us into irreversible states,” added Burke, who was not involved in the study.
There is a good (or not so bad) one: according to a study, the Air pollution is not quite at the danger point globally. “But we are moving in the wrong direction on almost everything,” said Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and the study’s lead author.
The report acknowledges that it did not consider some other major issues, such as plastic buildup or lingering chemicals. He explains that they are risks that have not yet been sufficiently studied to know if they represent an existential danger.
Rockstrom says there are several medications we can take: “But we also need lifestyle changes: less meat, more water, and a more balanced diet.” Improving the outlook is still possible, he assured. “Nature’s regenerative powers are robust… but we need much more commitment.”