Those NDCs are equivalent to the greenhouse gas reduction commitments of the nearly 200 countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement. Those NDCs must be updated every five years.
The aim of the agreement was to keep warming “well below 2ºC” compared to the pre-industrial era, and as low as 1.5ºC possible.
In its latest assessment of commitments, Paris Equity Check considers that “most developed countries” are still far from adjusting to this ambitious 1.5ºC limit, which was reaffirmed during COP26 in Glasgow last year and COP27 in Egypt. this year.
Among the rich countries, the European Union’s commitments are adjusted to a warming of 2.3 or 2.5 ºC between now and the end of the century, and those of the United States of 3 or 3.4 ºC. These figures come from scientific data updated in November and from data from the Climate Action Tracker research group.
In America, Brazil would adjust to a warming of 2.1 or 2.9 ºC, and Mexico of 2.7 or 3.2 ºC. Slightly less ambitious, Chile’s commitments would adjust to a warming between 3.2 and 4ºC, and Argentina to 3.9ºC.
These countries are, however, far from the catastrophic warming potential of emerging countries such as China, Russia or Turkey, of 5ºC or more.
It is the poorest countries, essentially in sub-Saharan Africa, that most conform to the Paris Agreement. Their challenge will be to stick to their commitments when they take off financially, after 2030.
“This assessment shows the importance of international support and collaboration so that the global South does not have to resort to development as carbon-intensive as countries in the North,” said Yann Robiou de Pont, a researcher at Paris Equity Check.
“The challenge for the North is to develop and implement rapid options to mitigate (emissions), and provide sufficient and fair support. The challenge for the South is to remain green after 2030,” he summarized.