BTC and many altcoins are kicking up dust after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke of the possibility of smaller rate hikes in 2023, but is the momentum sustainable?
Bitcoin (BTC) has shrugged off the weakness in the United States stock markets and is attempting to kick off a rally on November 30. Buyers are looking for a monthly close above $17,000. This suggests that sell-offs that had picked up due to the FTX crisis may be winding down.
Usually smaller investors panic and dump their holdings in a bear market, but the opposite has been the case with Bitcoin investors. According to Glassnode data released on Nov. 27, investors holding less than one Bitcoin, also called shrimp, have bought 96,200 Bitcoin since the FTX crash.
Similarly, investors holding between 1 and 10 Bitcoin, classified as crabs, bought 191,600 Bitcoin in the last 30 days. This shows that investors continue to accumulate at lower levels.
However, a strong recovery in the Bitcoin price is unlikely for some time. Trading firm QCP Capital believes that the December 13 US Consumer Price Index data and the December 14 US Fed policy decision could act as risk factors because many investors could see ” forced to continually sell assets to increase liquidity. QCP expects the situation to change only in the second or third quarter of next year after the Fed possibly changes and releases liquidity into the system.
Could Bitcoin Lead Cryptocurrency Markets Higher? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin rallied from $15,995 on Nov. 28 and broke out of the developing descending triangle pattern on Nov. 30. This invalidated the bearish setup and may have attracted buying from the bulls who are trying to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average. ($16,910).
A close above the 20 day EMA will be the first sign that the bears may be losing control. The BTC/USDT pair could rally to $17,622 and then to the 50-day simple moving average ($18,434). Sellers are expected to defend this area vigorously.
If the price turns down from the upper zone but bounces off the 20 day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. That could raise the possibility of a rally to $20,000 and then $21,500.
Another possibility is that the price drops below USD 17,622. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair can consolidate between $15,476 and $17,622 for longer.
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,234) on Nov. 26, but the bulls stopped the slide at $1,151 on Nov. 28. This signals a pick up in demand and a sign that sentiment could turn positive.
The buyers have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA, and the next attempt will be to break above the 50-day SMA ($1,335). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. This level may attract heavy selling by the bears because a break above the channel could signal a possible trend reversal.
To invalidate this bullish view, the bears will have to defend the 50-day SMA and push the price below $1,051. The pair could then decline to the support line of the channel.
BNB (BNB) bounced off the moving averages on Nov. 29, but the bulls are struggling to take advantage of this move. This suggests that the bears are likely to pose a strong challenge between $300 and $318.
The 20-day EMA ($292) is flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The advantage could tilt in favor of the buyers if they catapult the price above $318. That could clear the way for a rally to $338, where the bears can re-erect a hard barrier.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and falls below the moving averages. The pair could then turn down to the support of $258.
The bulls successfully defended the retest of the symmetrical triangle breakout on November 28. This is a positive sign as it shows that traders are buying the dips in XRP (XRP).
The bounce has reached the overhead resistance at $0.41, which is an important level to watch. If the bulls catapult the price above this resistance, the XRP/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.45 and then $0.51.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are selling aggressively near $0.41. Then they will try again to bring the price inside the triangle. If they can pull it off, the pair could drop to $0.34.
Cardano (ADA) remains in a downtrend, but the bullish divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening.
The bulls will have to push and hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.32) to signal strength. If they do, the ADA/USDT pair may start a rally to the downtrend line. The 50-day SMA ($0.36) can act as resistance, but it is likely to be crossed.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20 day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are selling minor rallies. The bears will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the price to the support line.
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.09) on Nov. 28, indicating that sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying dips.
The rising 20 day EMA and the RSI above 60 suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. Buyers are looking to extend the rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.11 and close to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.12.
The sellers are likely to mount a strong defense in this area. If the price turns down, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop back to the 20-day EMA.
Conversely, if the buyers push the price above the upper zone, the pair could complete a 100% retracement and rally to $0.16.
Polygon (MATIC) remains stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.88) and the uptrend line. The 20 day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
The bulls are trying to push the price above the moving averages and gain the upper hand. If successful, the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to $0.97 and then rally to $1.05. This level could again attract selling by the bears, but if the bulls clear this hurdle, bullish momentum could pick up.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down from the moving averages and slides below the uptrend line. The pair could then drop to the important support at $0.69.
Polkadot (DOT) rallied from $5.06 on Nov. 28, indicating that the bulls are trying to form a low of $5. The price reached the 20-day EMA ($5.52) on Nov. 30, which is likely to act as a formidable resistance.
The RSI has formed a bullish divergence as it has not tracked the DOT/USDT pair lower. This indicates that the selling pressure could be weakening and the probability of a break above the 20 day EMA increases. If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($6) and then attempt a rally to the downtrend line.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20 day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are viewing relief rallies as a selling opportunity. A break below $5 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $4.32.
The long tail on the November 28 candlestick for Litecoin (LTC) shows strong buying at the lower levels. This suggests that the buyers are trying to turn the breakout level of $75 into support.
The rising 20-day EMA ($69) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Buyers will have to push the price above $84 to start a new move higher, which could go as high as $104.
Instead, if the bulls fail to push the price above $84, the bears will try again to sink the LTC/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, several aggressive bulls may get trapped and result in a long selloff. The pair can then drop to the 50-day SMA ($60).
The bulls are buying the dips to the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. This is a positive sign, as it indicates that demand is at lower levels. The buyers are trying to strengthen their position by pushing Uniswap (UNI) above the 20-day EMA ($5.67).
The RSI has risen near the midpoint, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the buyers hold the price above the 20-day EMA, the UNI/USDT pair can attempt a rally towards the resistance line of the triangle. A break above the triangle will suggest a possible trend change.
Conversely, if the price fails to break above the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell rallies. Then again they will try to push the price below the triangle and open the doors for a drop to $4.60 and then $3.33.
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