Bitcoin and altcoins are starting to show signs of a potential turnaround, but a handful of downside risks remain.
Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 263,000 in November, beating economists’ expectations for a 200,000 increase. Analysts believe the numbers are still good and don’t give the Federal Reserve much room to stop its aggressive rate hikes.
This is contrary to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the Brookings Institution, where he said the central bank could slow the pace of rate hikes “as soon as December.” That triggered a sharp rally in risk assets. Following the latest jobs report, market participants will be closely watching the Fed’s comments and decision at its December 13-14 meeting.
The Fed’s decision may also affect Bitcoin (BTC), which remains in a firm bearish grip. Data from Coinglass shows that }Bitcoin’s monthly returns in November 2018, 2019, and 2021 were negative, followed by a further decline in December.
Will history repeat itself and Bitcoin fall again in December or will the buyers win and push the price higher? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to get an idea.
Bitcoin soared above the descending triangle and 20-day exponential moving average ($16,949) on Nov. 30. This is the first indication that the downtrend might be ending.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium would flip in favor of the bulls if they push the price above the overhead resistance at $17.622.
If the buyers hold the price above this level, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 50-day simple moving average ($18,349). This level may again act as a group, but it is likely that it will intersect. The pair could then start its march north towards $21,500.
If the bulls fail to push the price above $17.622, the pair could remain range bound for longer.
Ether (ETH) continues to trade within the descending channel pattern, but the bulls are trying to tilt the short-term advantage in their favor. The buyers pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,245) on November 30, which suggests that the demand is at higher levels.
The bears will again try to stop the rally at the 50-day SMA ($1,335), but the probability of a break above is high. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the channel. This level may prove to be a major hurdle for the bulls.
Alternatively, a failure to push the price above the 50-day SMA may create an opportunity for the bears to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then retrace its recent gains and drop to $1,151.
BNB (BNB) bounced off the moving averages on Nov. 29, but the bulls were unable to break above the $300 upper barrier. This indicates that the bears are selling on relief rallies.
The price dipped back below the moving averages on Dec. 2 and the bears are trying to push the BNB/USDT pair below $286. If they can pull it off, the pair could drop to $275 and then strong support. of USD 258.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $306, it will suggest that the buyers are trying to come back. The pair could then attempt a rally to $338.
In the short term, the flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a range formation.
XRP (XRP) again failed to break above the overhead resistance of $0.41 on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, indicating that the bears are vigorously defending the level.
The XRP/USDT pair has broken below the 20-day EMA ($0.40) and the bears will now try to push the price below $0.37. If they do, the pair can extend its stay within the wide range between $0.30 and $0.41 for a few more days.
On the other hand, if the price rises from the current level or $0.37, it will suggest buying on dips. The bulls will then try to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.43) and start an up move to $0.51.
Cardano (ADA) is consolidating in a downtrend. The bullish divergence on the RSI suggests that selling pressure may be easing and a recovery may be on the cards.
If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.32), the ADA/USDT pair could pick up momentum and try to rally to the downtrend line. The bears are likely to mount a strong defense at this level.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20 day EMA, it will suggest that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling rallies. The pair could drop towards $0.29 again.
The Dogecoin (DOGE) rally is facing resistance near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12. This suggests that the bears are active at higher levels.
The price has gone down to the breakout level of $0.09, which is an important level to watch. A strong bounce will suggest that the bulls have changed the level to support.
The buyers will again try to push the price above $0.11 and resume the rally. If successful, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.13.
Conversely, if the price falls below $0.09, it will suggest that the rally may be over. Next, the pair could drop to the moving averages, and then to $0.07.
Polygon (MATIC) rallied above the moving averages on Nov. 30, suggesting that the bulls are making a comeback. The price turned lower on December 1, but the bulls are trying to turn the 20-day EMA ($0.89) into support.
If the buyers push the price above $0.97, the rally could accelerate and the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance of $1.05. This level can act as a hurdle, but if the bulls push the price above it, the pair could rally towards $1.30.
Instead, if the price turns below $0.97, the bears will make another attempt to drag the pair below the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could retest the support at the uptrend line.
Polkadot (DOT) is attempting to recover in a downtrend. After hesitating near the 20-day EMA ($5.53) for two days, buyers pushed the price above the resistance on Dec. 2.
The DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($5.96), which may act as a minor hurdle, but it is likely to be crossed. Thereafter, the pair could extend the relief rally to the downtrend line. A break and close above this resistance could indicate a potential trend change.
The bears had stopped two previous recovery attempts at the downtrend line, so it is possible that they will try to defend the level again. If the bears want to regain control, they will have to drop the price below the 20-day EMA and break the support at $5. The pair could plummet to $4.32.
Litecoin (LTC) has been trading above the breakout level of $75, but the bulls are facing stiff resistance in the $80-$84 zone. This suggests that the bears have not given up yet.
Although the rising moving averages indicate an advantage for buyers, the RSI is forming a bearish divergence. This indicates that the positive momentum could be weakening. The LTC/USDT pair may remain stuck between the 20-day EMA and $84 for a while.
A consolidation near overhead resistance is usually a positive sign, as it suggests that buyers are not rushing to book profits. If the bulls push the price above $84, a new uptrend could start and the pair could rally to $104.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and falls below $70, the pair could start a slide to the 50-day SMA ($61).
Uniswap (UNI) broke above the 20-day EMA ($5.74) on November 30. This is the first indication that the bears may be losing control. The buyers will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the 50-day SMA ($6.17).
If they manage to do that, the UNI/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might because if they fail, it will suggest that the symmetrical triangle may have acted as a reversal pattern. The pair could then start a fresh move up to $8 and then $10.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20 day EMA. Then the pair could retest the support line of the symmetrical triangle.
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