LA downgrade of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) by Moody’s will not significantly affect investment in MexicoHowever, the federal government’s support for the company to face its liabilities could mean greater fiscal pressure in the future, BBVA considered.
The Chief Economist of the bank in the country, Carlos SerranoHe noted that investors in general already assumed that Pemex had not been investment grade for a long time, so the impact was already discounted.
“The assumption that exists is that the federal government will be supporting the company’s liabilities, in this sense, the concern that there is more than an issue of the credit quality of Pemex due to this support, is that Pemex may mean greater fiscal pressures forward for the federal government“, he claimed.
Serrano opined that sIt would be appropriate to try to attract capital through participations between Pemex and the private sector, in order to lighten this burden on the federal government, in addition to providing experience in the exploitation of deep water fields.
Read: BBVA achieves 59% of all its half-year earnings in Mexico
At a press conference on the bank’s financial results, the BBVA Mexico economist explained that this would eventually reduce the fiscal burden that Pemex is representing for the federal government.
Economy is recovering, but we must not throw the bells to the flight
After the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced that the Mexican economy would have reported a growth of 1.5% in the second quarter of the year and in the face of a third wave of Covid-19, the bank considered that lVaccination is essential for growth.
The CEO of the financial institution, Eduardo Osuna, considered that at this time the most important thing is the evolution of vaccination forward for the economic reactivation, which they hope will take a rhythm to be the main antidote, in addition to monitoring the number of hospitalizations.
Lee: American tourists return to Mexican beaches in the first half of 2021; increase 76%
“Despite the rebound that we are seeing, this waves not only in Mexico, but worldwide, of new infections of Covid-19, andWe are being optimistic about the recovery in the second semester, our expectation is that we will be growing 6.3% in GDP, 2.8% in employment”, He indicated.
Osuna explained that this will be underpinned by private investment, which they estimate will have a good rhythm in 2021, internal demand, private consumption with good growth; as well as the advancement of the US economy.
In this sense, Serrano commented that tIt is still an economy that is 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level and the key is vaccination, so if the vaccination process is not accelerated what we can see is that this recovery in consumption could lose dynamics towards the third quarter and therefore the economy slows down.
“It is slightly below what we expected (the 1.5% growth released by Inegi), we expected 1.7%, we still believe that it can be revised upwards, this is preliminary data, what it tells us is that the economy continues to recover, but the bells cannot be thrown, “he added.