A handful of on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin could be close to bottoming out, and if true, the eventual relief rally could induce strong altcoin gains.
The US stock markets and the cryptocurrency space are witnessing a relief rally this week. Supporting the rise in risk assets is the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has retreated from its multi-year high. In general, cryptocurrencies are moving inversely to the price of the US dollar, but this week’s bounce does not necessarily mean that the bulls’ control over the market has come to an end.
Citing on-chain data, CryptoQuant Senior Analyst Julio Moreno said that Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already capitulated. Historical data suggests that miner capitulation often precedes market bottoms.
Another on-chain metric that indicates that the price of Bitcoin may have reached an attractive level is the Mayer Multiple. The metric is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin price by the 200-day moving average value. Point out whether Bitcoin is overbought, undervalued, or fairly priced. On June 22, the indicator reading was 0.5, and according to crypto entrepreneur Kyle Chasse, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below this reading on only 3% of all trading days.
Several on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be close to bottoming out. Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out what the technicals suggest!
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery in a downtrend, but the bulls are struggling to push the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $23,024. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
The first hurdle for the bulls is likely to be $21,723 and then the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA ($23,529). During strong downtrends, bears sell rallies at this level. Therefore, it becomes at an important level to watch.
If the price breaks down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are in command. Afterwards, the sellers will make another attempt to sink the BTC/USDT pair to the crucial level of $17.622.
Conversely, if the buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears may be losing control. That could open the doors for a possible rally towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($27,995).
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) had been trading between $1,200 and $1,050 since June 20. This narrow range trade resolved to the upside on June 24 as the bulls tried to push the price back to the 20-day EMA ($1,332).
This level is likely to attract stiff resistance from the bears. If the price breaks down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on the rallies.
Afterwards, the bears will try to push the price to $1,050. A breakout and close below this support could retest the vital support at $881.
Alternatively, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the probability of a rally to the breakout level of $1,700 increases.
BNB/USDT
The bears attempted to push BNB below $211 on June 22, but the bulls held their ground. This started a relief rally that reached the 20-day EMA ($243).
If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will increase the possibility that the break below $211 was a bear trap. The BNB/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($284), where the bears can once again mount strong resistance.
Another possibility is that the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the bears will try to push the pair below $211 and challenge the June 18 intraday low of $183. A break below this support could signal the start of a downtrend to $150.
XRP/USDT
The tight range trading in Ripple (XRP) resolved to the upside with a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.35) on June 24. This suggests that the bears may be losing control.
The buyers tried to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.40) on June 24, but the long wick of the daily candle suggests that the bears are still defending the level aggressively. If the price turns down and drops below the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.35.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a new move higher. The pair could first rally to $0.46 and then make a run to $0.56.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) has been oscillating between the 20-day EMA ($0.50) and the strong support at $0.44 for the past few days, but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
The RSI has been gradually rising which suggests that the bearish momentum might be weakening. That improves the prospects for a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are aggressively defending the level. Sellers will then try to push the pair below the strong support zone of $0.44 to $0.40 and resume the downtrend.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($36) on June 22, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls bought the dip and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA on June 23.
If the bulls sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($45). The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the bears may be losing control. A breakout and close above the 50-day SMA will indicate that the downtrend may be over.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price fails to sustain above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. If the sellers break the price below $33, the pair could drop to $27.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading close to the 20-day EMA ($0.06) since June 21. This suggests that the bulls are not closing their positions as they anticipate a break above the 20-day EMA.
The RSI has been gradually rising towards the midpoint and the 20-day EMA is flattening out, which suggests that the bulls are attempting to rally.
If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08), where the bears can once again pose a strong challenge. The bulls will have to overcome this hurdle to open the doors for a possible move higher to $0.10.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to push the pair below $0.06 and challenge the psychological support at $0.05.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) bounced off the $7.30 support on June 23, which indicates that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($8.15), which is a major barrier for the bulls to overcome.
The RSI has risen above 45 and the 20-day EMA is stabilizing. This suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening. If the bulls push the price above the moving averages, the DOT/USDT pair might attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $12.44.
This level can again act as a strong resistance and if the price turns down, the pair could remain stuck between $12.44 and $7.30 for a few days. The bears will have to sink the price below the $7.30–$6.36 support zone to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
SHIB/USDT
The bears tried to push the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.000009) on June 22, but the bulls held their ground. Shiba Inu (SHIB) rebounded from the 20-day EMA on June 23, but the buyers were unable to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011).
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which indicates a balance between buyers and sellers. This balance could tip in favor of the bulls if they push the price above the 50-day SMA. The SHIB/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014.
Conversely, if the price turns down and falls below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears have won the game. Afterwards, the pair could slide to $0.000008.
LEO/USD
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) repeatedly rose above the resistance line of the descending channel on June 22-24, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the resistance line of the channel. Failure to sustain the price above the channel may tempt short-term traders to book profits.
That could take the price to the 20-day EMA ($5.39). If the price bounces off this support, the bulls will once again try to push the LEO/USD pair above the channel. If they are successful, the next stop could be $6.50 and then $6.80.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by the exchange HitBTC .