The inauguration ceremony of this January 20 will make Joe Biden the 46th president of the United States, but the Democrat receives a country deeply polarized in the political, social and economic. A division that has existed for decades, but that four years of power under Donald Trump was accentuated.
These last weeks since the November 3 elections, which gave Biden victory, have been some of the most abnormal in the country’s history. Donald Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his defeat, despite the fact that the courts to which he challenged the results did not agree with him, kindled the spirits of his most fervent followers, framed in the most radical sector of the Republican Party.
A situation that has not only remained in words and that on January 6 materialized in facts after the assault on the Capitol after an incendiary speech by the outgoing president, Donald Trump. Unprecedented images of violence in the US legislative headquarters that unleashed in five deaths, chaos and the consequent ‘impeachment’ against Trump in the absence of a few days to finish his term. The second of the legislature against him.
These situations opened a sea of doubts about the internal political panorama of the first world power. It seems complex to ensure that the end of Trump in the office is the end of his ideological trend. Joe Biden has the difficult task of carrying out a series of proposals and recovering harmony in a country where millions of people do not recognize him as president and where the points of understanding between the two main parties have practically disappeared.
The radicalization of certain sectors
Since January 6, what has attracted the most attention were the images of armed people, dressed in hunting mode and in complete coordination and order, entering the Capitol and causing the paralysis of the session that certified the victory of Joe Biden in the elections against Donald Trump.
This has led Washington DC to militarize itself in order to avoid images similar to those of that day, but a series of fears have arisen regarding the power, monitoring, and capacity of these armed groups.
For Mariano Aguirre, associate researcher at the Chatham House Institute and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s safety net, “Biden comes to power at a time when armed groups and the proliferation of weapons in the country are booming”, an obvious danger for his presidency since it is about “deeply undemocratic groups that do not believe in the Government and less in the legitimacy of Joe Biden.”
But Aguirre believes that what is worrying for the next four years is the implication in these groups of certain subjects of the state security forces. “The FBI investigations indicate that there is a radicalization of some commanders who currently operate in certain security forces and among those arrested for the assault on the Capitol there are 11 former members of these forces,” he points out.
In line with what Aguirre exposes, an article in the ‘New York Times’ already warned about the fact that veterans were strengthening the ranks of these radical armed groups in September. What was observed on January 6 were not spontaneous acts, but totally organized?
An opinion also shared by Robert Matthews, professor of history and politics of Latin America at New York University, who points out that this is “the most worrying thing about the current polarization situation.” Matthews attributes the situation to the existence of “multitudes of law enforcement officers who do not respond to the federal order and who are radicalized in white supremacism.”
The United States is not used to making these kinds of appeals to its military.
This issue has prompted the High General Staff to issue a statement reminding the security forces of their loyalty to the Constitution and to the next commander-in-chief, Joe Biden. For Aguirre this is something unusual since “the United States is not used to making this type of appeal to its armed forces. We have seen these things in other parts of the world to avoid possible coups, but not here ”.
In addition to this statement, there is concern among senior defense officials that some members of the more than 20,000 troops deployed in Washington DC may pose a threat to security and contribute to an internal attack. Made by which the FBI has begun a thorough investigation process of each uniformed member of the National Guard.
To the supposed organization of these groups, we must add another factor that is difficult to control and that is the proliferation of weapons. Professor Matthews notes that in 2020 “a new record for arms purchases was broken.” Almost 40 million, 10 million more than in 2019, when the record was also broken.
Matthews also believes that it is important to emphasize in the context of this increase in weapons: “Before, sales increased after the massacres for fear of a restriction, but this increase is somewhat more general. It has happened because in certain sectors the discourse that the incoming government wants to destroy the United States has penetrated”.
Does the decline of Trump mean the end of the most radical postulates?
The facts from the Capitol cannot be loaded onto all GOP voters, but it seems clear they were motivated by months of tough rhetoric from President Donald Trump. The question now is whether the departure of the president from power will generate a moderation in the Republican ranks.
For Álex Maroño, an analyst at the Spanish media outlet ‘El Orden Mundial’, there are “three factions within the Republican Party: those that continue to defend Trump, those that have recently broken with him and the traditional ones. It remains to be seen how these three groups consolidate, especially during the ‘impeachment’, but it seems that ‘Trumpism’ continues to be the majority ”.
‘Trumpism’ as a political current will not leave the Republican Party overnight because it continues to be the majority among its ranks and as Mariano Aguirre indicates, “the radicalization of the party comes from before the arrival of Donald Trump, only that he knew how to capitalize on it ”, so it is to be expected that the line will continue.
Professor Matthews agrees on this line and assures that “the party’s ultra-conservative trajectory will continue until they link several crushing electoral defeats in a row, something that is far from happening.”
Additionally, while scenes like those on the Capitol stunned a majority of voters, including many of them Republicans, a January 6 ‘YouGov ‘ poll showed that 68% of Republicans did not consider the events of that day to be a “Threat to democracy”. In the scandalous day, 43% of the Republicans polled approved the assault on Congress.
Although it is true that, in another survey on January 13, when the consequences were known in more detail, the support dropped to 12% and the undecided reached 20%, the figures continue to show not inconsiderable support for Donald Trump, since that 36% of Republican voters still consider themselves solely ‘Trumpists’.
Aguirre concludes that “although there are Republican voters who do not like the way Trump has had during these four years, they agree with his economic management, with his speech in favor of traditionalism and religion and against social or environmental policies. ”.
The challenges Biden will face despite the split
On January 6, the Democrats achieved a victory almost as important as reaching the White House: Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff took over the two remaining Senate seats and achieved a tie in the Upper House that will benefit Joe Biden thanks to the qualified vote of Kamala Harris.
This double victory in the second round of Georgia’s senatorial race means that the incoming government can obtain legislative victories thanks to double chamber control, but the lack of understanding with the opposition seems almost guaranteed on some issues such as economic aid and the environment.
Maroño emphasizes that “the majority that Joe Biden enjoys is the scarcest in decades and not all Democratic representatives or senators will always agree on everything, so it can be broken.” The analyst gives an example to more conservative representatives or senators from states like West Virginia, something that makes Biden “interested in a bipartisan agenda.”
The Republican Party has been for years with a strong policy that tends towards the disappearance of the State in most areas of life, something that according to Aguirre “will lead to strong resistance regarding issues such as economic aid during the pandemic and green plans. ”. The researcher maintains that what is least liked by the conservative caucus is “the intention of building a new ‘New Deal’ adapted to the 21st century”.
In addition to these more parliamentary issues, there is the new coronavirus pandemic, which to date has left more than 200,000 deaths in the United States and which has also been a matter of political dispute. Joe Biden promised 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days, but the question is how to reach that number when among the Republican ranks there are high percentages of deniers, anti-vaccines and detractors of the use of face masks.
Matthews believes that “it is impossible for the Biden Administration to force vaccination. The president-elect has endorsed the argument to fight the pandemic, but now he faces several realities such as a very skeptical population in some social sectors and, above all, a major logistics and supply problem.
Will there be reconciliation?
One of Biden’s main promises before and after his victory was to “restore harmony” to a nation that has experienced the greatest political tension in decades or even the last century. But the three analysts consulted by France 24 agree that it will be a long and difficult process.
Mariano Aguirre considers that the problem “is not that there is a polarization of both sides, it is that the tradition of the American right has been radicalized. The researcher believes that “there is a possibility of establishing some harmony with the voter concerned about the economic situation if Biden achieves a quick recovery, but with the more political and ideologically influenced Republican it is almost impossible.”
For Maroño, the issue involves “carrying out a long-term program of de-radicalization of some sectors that are certainly far from the state.” The great challenge is to reach a population that is often rural and lives in the states that lie between the two coasts, far from the great flows of information and political trends from the industrial poles.
However, Joe Biden faces the beginning of his term on January 20. The 46th president in the history of the country faces great challenges to solve in the midst of a turbulent internal situation that seems to be far from being resolved and that is in danger of intensifying due to the radicalization of certain sectors that increasingly refuse the evidence. , democracy and the institutions that the world’s leading power prides itself on.