Foreign investors are experiencing one of the best moments in this century to invest in pesos, which clearly explains the constant appreciation of our currency.
But national investors too; At this time there is no worse strategy than having money saved in the mattress or looking for too many investment options.
We are in a period in which investments in pesos are absolute winners and, in additionEverything indicates that the trend will continue for at least the rest of the year, unless something unexpected happens.
As if that were not enough, the yields that will be obtained will be “guaranteed” and will remain for a long period. A panorama as clear and easy to choose as now has not been drawn for a long time.
Fixed income, the best real rate of the century
Yesterday, Tuesday, the real rate of the 28-day term Cetes was set at 11.25 percent.
Everything indicates that investors in general and specialized markets in particular expect Banxico to start its own monetary pause this coming May 18, when in its monetary policy meeting it determines the future of the reference interest rate.
It is striking because the Cetes rate in the leading 28-day term is exactly the same as the reference rate, it seems that the market has reached an almost unanimous position.
If the expectation that Banxico decides not to move the rate for the rest of the year is truethe leading rate of the Cetes will be the same as the terminal rate of the central bankso there are many possibilities that this indicator will also remain the same, it will be difficult to separate from the reference of the cost of money, that is, from the Banxico rate.
This means that national investors in pesos are currently earning a real rate of 500 basis pointsthe best of the century together with the one registered between 2013 and 2014, at similar levels.
But there could be better news for domestic investors.
What can go down is the inflation rate; the market expectation says that it could close the year around 5.25 percent.
Therefore, the real rate in pesos would even reach levels of 600 basis points,
The only difference between national and foreign investors would be the exchange benefit that the former obviously do not have, since their savings and investments are made directly in the local currency, but without a doubt they have also benefited and could benefit more from the yields in pesos, under the context of a static monetary policy.
National investors in pesos could only worry about two things in the coming months:
1) Choose the term of your investment in fixed income according to your liquidity requirements.
2) That for some reason the scenario will be drastically modified.
On the first point they have absolute control, for the second case they cannot do anything.
Period not exempt from risks
Analysts and specialists consider that the period ahead will not be without risk.
Factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the US regional banking situation, the China-US “trade war”, conflicts in the oil market, to name a few, can decompose the scenario at any moment.
Without failing to point out that any other unforeseen factor today can appear and move everything in a matter of days or months, if the pandemic taught us anything, it is that this is absolutely possible.
Therefore, analysts consider that, given such a favorable nominal and real interest rate, the benefits must be taken advantage of, but without losing sight of liquidity as a complementary strategy to always have resources that can be invested at a better rate, or that serve to cover any emergency.
Welcome to the period of profitable investments almost by inertia.