By the end of 2022, the price index is expected to stand at 3.79%.
The members of the Banxico Governing Board estimate that inflation will converge to the target of 3% in the first quarter of 2023.
Analysts do not show optimism, since from a 6.06% growth in the July survey, they now estimate that the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 5.99%. For next year, lower growth is also expected, standing at 2.81% from 2.83% in the previous month’s survey.
From April to June of this year the Mexican economy grew 1.5% in real terms, compared to the first quarter of 2021. While in the annual comparison, the growth was 19.5%, due to the low comparison base. Between April and June of last year, Mexico suffered the worst of the crisis caused by the coronavirus.
Banco de México divides the factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth into internal and external factors.
Among the internal conditions that concern analysts are factors associated with governance – political uncertainty, insecurity and other problems of lack of rule of law; corruption and impunity-; in addition to the weakness of the domestic market and the uncertainty about the domestic economic situation.
Regarding external factors, from August 2020 (22%) to August this year (1%) there was a decrease in terms of the weakness of the external market and the world economy.