The math they are everywhere, in all its branches. But, above all, probability and statistics They visit us continuously in our day to day life, sometimes without us realizing it. Precisely for this reason, it is a branch that is studied in most careers, whether they are the so-called “sciences” or “letters”. The problem is that, unfortunately, they are not always studied properly, which is why most of us are dangerously exposed to uncertainty. Luckily, there is a solution, locked away in the pages of How to survive uncertaintythe recently published book by mathematical Anabel Forte next to the publisher Next Door Publishers.
In it, using a nearby conductive threadin which a family is exposed to various daily situations in which probability plays an important role, this statistician unravels the keys to be able to use this branch of mathematics in our day to day, without wavering in the attempt.
And it is that, if we learn to understand statistics and probability, we will be freer. For example, free to don’t be fooled by the graphs that some politicians launch into debates like throwing weapons. Or to understand that, although it seems that more vaccinated than unvaccinated people die from COVID-19, with the statistics in hand, the puncture will taste much better to us.
Why should we all learn about probability and statistics?
The book has the prologue of Sevillian mathematics Clara Grim. This scientific popularizer breaks a spear for statistics and probability, those disciplines located at the end of textbooks that many times are not even studied. And it is a mistake, because they are enormously necessary in our day to day.
In fact, according to hypertextual own Anabel ForteThis is so mainly for two reasons. On the one hand, to lose fear of science and how it works. “It greatly influences decisions that are made about which family of medications you are going to take for a certain disease, how it is diagnosed or why you are given one test or another, ”he says. “In engineering, too, the decision is made to use one type of device and not another.”
On the other hand, it helps encourage critical thinking. “In news, half the time in a headline you have a reference to an average or a percentage or something similar,” recalls the author of this book on statistics and probability. “And then, within the article, you will almost certainly find graphs.”
Understanding all these resources and being able to comment on whether they have really been carried out properly is something that requires knowledge of statistics and probability. “If you know a little more about it, you will have an easier time understanding what they are telling you in order to criticize.” In short, in the words of Forte, it is about “understand the world around us and be less afraid of it”. That is, “understand how science is done and then encourage critical thinking and that we are able to see things with a different eye.”
And it is that, to have a critical spirit, not only philosophy is needed. Also math. who was talking about science or letters majors?
Beware of graphics in journalism
Throughout the book, a common thread is generated in which a family is exposed to everyday situations in which statistics is needed. Forte tells us that he decided to do it that way to hook the reader. They deal with different cases among which, of course, are the famous journalism graphics. It is very common to find some errors in them that can go unnoticed. Therefore, there are some details that we must always take into account.
On the one hand, there must be some axes. That is, a vertical line and a horizontal line in which the values that are being represented are marked. On the other hand, if it is bar, “first you have to know what each bar is”. In addition, a vertical line is needed where they are marked regularly the scale values. “Imagine that you are measuring the percentages of approved in different autonomous communities”, exemplifies Forte. “You must have some percentages that go regularly from 0 to 100 and that the distance from 0% to 10% is the same as from 10% to 20%”.
Thus, as she explains, we would save ourselves those typical graphs in which, for example, a bar looks bigger than referring to a smaller value. But you also have to see if it makes sense. For example, “if we talk about unemployment, maybe it doesn’t make sense to go from 0 to 5 million, but rather to talk about percentages”. And it is that, if not, what would we put in zero unemployment?
Also in epidemiology
In this way, we can avoid many misleading graphs, like the ones we have been seeing during the pandemic, for example. And it is that, in fact, in epidemiological issues statistics and probability play a vital role. The author of the book explains it with a simple joke.
“There was a very good joke that was: I have been told that 20% of people die from smoking. Why do the remaining 80% die? Why not smoke? So I’m going to smoke.”
Anabel Forte, mathematician and statistician
We can easily see that this does not make sense. However, on certain occasions they may sneak in similar issues and that we do not see them as obvious. That’s why it’s so important learn about statistics and probability. And that is why Anabel Forte’s book is so necessary. These are just a few brushstrokes of how much we can find inside.
