Bitcoin (BTC) has spent more than a year on a downtrend from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
BTC price performance has given investors up to 77% losses, but how much lower can BTC/USD really go?
Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the new bear market for the largest cryptocurrency.
After breaking out of all-time highs to start the year around $46,000, the BTC/USD pair has offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm. .
This has put the pair in historic bear market bottom territory – having lost a high of around 77% since the most recent peak, Bitcoin may have little room to fall.
This time, however, it may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the most popular cryptocurrency market commentators are thinking when it comes to where Bitcoin will bottom out.
CryptoBullet: “Comfortable buying” around USD 16,000
A well-known social media personality clings to an early 2022 theory, and everything revolves around one particular on-chain metric.
For CryptoBullet, Accumulated Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) continue to offer key insight into BTC price macro bottoms.
CVDD essentially counts how many days “held” a coin has accumulated when it is moved to a new wallet. It’s expressed as a ratio to the global age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics resource Woobull explains is a “calibration factor.”
Looking back over time, CVDD has acted as a significant line in the sand, and if this time is no different, the BTC/USD pair could already be giving buyers the best profit opportunity possible.
According to Woobull, the CVDD currently stands at around $15,900.
“I feel comfortable buying Bitcoin here at CVDD,” saidor CryptoBullet to his Twitter followers on November 26.
“Can it go any lower? Of course it can. If another cryptocurrency company goes bankrupt or something, BTC will drop below CVDD, but not by much. The worst of the downtrend is over.”
Filbfilb: A drop to $6,500 as a “worst case scenario”
A veteran of the cryptocurrency market is constantly reassessing how far the bears can push this time.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading team Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that the BTC/USD pair could reach $10,000 around the new year if macro conditions worsen.
However, that was before the FTX debacle, and the resulting fuel added to the bear market fire has made him reconsider.
In a livestream together with his fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus pointed out the areas of good support levels for the offers as possible funds.
However, these vary: a large “ladder” of offers is just below the spot price and is centered around $12,000 – $14,000. At the same time, the final support could go as far as $6,000.
Filbfilb further noted that a black swan event, such as more industry bankruptcies, could trigger a spike through the upper support field, opening up the potential of $10,000 or so below.
However, a drop to the $6,000 area is “unlikely” under the current circumstances, he mentioned.
Many expect a pullback to the $14,000 level to happen
Filbfilb’s upper band of bid support on exchange order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.
As we already told you here at Cointelegraph, the $14,000 level is currently an important blip on the radar, and entries around that area are already being planned.
That zone would also put BTC/USD losses off all-time highs in line with those of previous bear markets.
Not only that, but the $13,900 level forms a major support line on weekly time frames, notes trader and analyst Rekt Capital, one that has remained untouched since the second half of 2020.
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