After the banks’ profits fell in 2020, due to the creation of preventive reserves, following the uncertainty generated by covid-19, in 2022 they managed to increase their profits, some even achieving record figures.
“Due to the interaction of the banking sector with the rest of the economic activities through credit and savings products, the behavior of the internal financing of commercial banks is related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” the agency highlighted. HR Ratings in a report.
The credit portfolio resembles the behavior of GDP with a delay of up to nine months, according to agency estimates.
Regarding credit granted by banks, BBVA and Banorte are the leaders in the sector, as shown in the graph below.
Consumer credit (which is credit cards, personal loans and automobiles) has shown growth, while mortgage loans have slowed down due to the increase in reference rates.
“An economic scenario with high inflation could hinder the growth of bank financing, since this would lead to increases in interest rates and a lower demand for credit, as well as a conservative risk appetite in the face of the economic environment,” highlighted HR Ratings.
At the end of 2022, the total banking portfolio was made up of 61% by business portfolio, followed by 19.5% by housing portfolio and 19.5% by consumer portfolio.
High inflation and high interest rates are expected to moderate credit placement in 2023.
In 2020, the delinquency rate increased in the face of the economic crisis, but the payment deferral programs provided by banks from three to six months allowed maintaining some stability.
