The price of bitcoin (BTC) returned to $30,500 on May 17 amid hopes that a retest of 2017 highs can be avoided.
BTC retesting $20,000 is “highly unlikely”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that the BTC/USD pair rose after the daily close to tentatively climb above the $30,000 mark.
Nevertheless, In a multi-day range, the pair has yet to decide on a significant path higher or lower, although volatility has eased in the new week.
Amid concerns that a major pullback could take it below last week’s ten-month lows, popular analyst Credible Crypto offered a more optimistic alternative. Based on historical norms, plot on Twitter, Bitcoin had little momentum to retest $20,000 or so.
“The argument that BTC will return to $13,000-14,000 on the premise that the major bear markets of the past have led to 80% drops from the top a few weeks ago.important assumption: that the $65,000 level was the top of the cycle,” he wrote.
“It’s the same assumption people made when bitcoin hit $30,000 in June 2021 before we recovered to a new all-time high of $65,000 3 months later.”
As Cointelegraph recently reported, contingency plans appear to be in place for such an event, and even MicroStrategy – the company with the largest corporate treasury of BTC – is prepared to buy during the offering to stem the decline.
Asked if the BTC/USD pair could repeat the pullback from its 2019 highs near $14,000 to a low of $3,600 during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, Credible Crypto was just as skeptical.
“That is not expected. Is it possible? Yes, but as I said before, A retest of the previous cycle’s highs has never happened before, so I find it highly unlikely.” answered.
For Michael van de PoppeCointelegraph contributor, the US dollar should cool off its bull run against other fiat currencies to give risky assets some breathing room.
As predicted, the US dollar index (DXY) should decline from its twenty-year high of 105 points.
“If I look at the current state of DXY, I think we will continue with this scenario. Assuming we see any corrective move, liquidity will wipe out the highs. Losing 103.7 points and I think we will have more downside pressure here -> risk assets to the upside” , tweeted on May 16.
The sentiment echoes the aftermath of March 2020
The market sentiment data reflects the majority consensus in the crypto space: that anything could happen now, with the trend firmly skewed to the downside.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, an indicator of market sentiment, reached 8/100 on May 17, its lowest value since March 28, 2020two weeks after the collapse induced by the Coronavirus.
Then, as now, the BTC/USD pair was already recovering from its lows. At $30,500, the pair is up 28% from the previous week.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.
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