There is a lot of talk these days about the imminent arrival of a hurricane in Spain. Specifically to the Galician coasts. Just imagining it scares us and leads us to ask ourselves some questions. The first: To what extent is this true? And the second and no less important: if it really happens, would it have had something to do with the climate change?
To answer these questions, you must first bear in mind that all these are weather forecasts made a week in advance. It is not possible to know so soon with certainty if a hurricane is going to reach Spain. But there are some indications that can lead us to think about it.
It is also important to remember that what is approaching is a tropical system and not all of them are hurricanes. They are considered as such when the winds exceed 34 meters per second (about 122 km/h). Sometimes, even if it reaches those speeds at sea, it may be much faster by the time it makes landfall. calmed down. There are many options on the table, so for now it only remains to wait and read the predictions calmly.
What is a hurricane?
Before talking about the possible hurricane that reaches the Galician coast, it is worth remembering what a hurricane is. But actually what we need to describe is a tropical cyclone. This is the name given to a stormy system, composed of a closed circulation around a low pressure center, and characterized by the formation of strong winds and abundant rains. All this is fed by the condensation of the moist air around it.
They can occur in different parts of the planet, but its name varies with changing geographic region. Specifically, if they occur in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, or Northeast Pacific, is when they are known as hurricanes. Instead, if it occurs in the northwestern pacificreference is made to a typhoon.
Returning to the former, since they feed on the moist airthe normal thing is that they originate in places where the water is very hot and therefore the air around it is quite humid. This means that the most affected areas of the Atlantic are not precisely those that bathe Spain.
That it arrives in Galicia is a lot to assume
What is happening is very unusual, but still you have to take it with caution. To begin with, the fact that it is almost certain that the hurricane will reach Galicia is not certain at this time. He has explained it in conversation with hypertextual Irene Santaphysicist and meteorologist the time is. “There is a Tropical depression in the North Atlantic formed at a very high latitude (38 °N, as far north as Murcia or Córdoba)”, says the expert. “It is very anomalous that it forms so far north and it is true that in its evolution the trajectory is directed towards areas of the east of the Atlantic basin near the Iberian Peninsula.”
With this clear, we will have to wait to know its evolution. For now, the predictions are these:
“It will move slowly to the northeast in the next few hours and it is expected to have a rapid intensification, so it could be a hurricane before reaching a latitude of 40 °N (that is, as far north as Madrid) today. It may then intensify further and reach its maximum at latitude 42-43°N (as far north as La Coruña). It will then be able to advance towards Europe, weakening, and it is probable that when it reaches this side of the Atlantic basin it will partially or totally lose its tropical characteristics. This process is called extratropical transition and it is how hurricanes become storms. However, this process can also be associated with adverse meteorological phenomena such as strong winds and large waves.
Irene Santa, meteorologist
But these are all forecasts made well in advance. According to Santa, we will be able to have more reliable predictions from Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. However, he also reminds that in the case of hurricanes, forecasts can sometimes change in the very short term. This is, for example, what happened in Spain with Hurricane Leslie.
What is clear is that, based on current predictions, It does not seem that it will pose a danger to Spain. Yes, it could arrive as a hurricane, but it could also weaken and reach the country only as a tropical storm. In any case, it is important to remain very attentive to the next predictions.
Has a hurricane ever hit Spain?
It is not the first time we have heard of hurricanes in Spain. In 2005 with Vince, in 2006 with Gordon, in 2018 with Leslie and in 2020 with Alpha We were with our hearts in our fists waiting for the arrival of this meteorological phenomenon in our territory. However, it is important to clarify that in no case have they reached Spain as hurricanes.
In the case of Vince, for example, “the hurricane reached the peninsular territory as a tropical storm, entering through the Gulf of Cadiz”. As for Gordon, caused significant damage in the Azores islandsbut by the time it approached the Iberian Peninsula it had already become extratropical depression. Leslie’s case in 2018 was very similar. And later in 2020, Subtropical Storm Alpha”hit Portugalbeing the tropical cyclone formed furthest east in the Atlantic basin since there are records”.
In all these cases the hurricanes reached further than usual and it was feared that they might hit us for the first time, but they did not. At least not in hurricane form. Now the same thing could happen. Or maybe this is the first time.
Does all this have to do with climate change?
Climate change is a reality that lately gives us one blow after another. In Spain the last one has arrived in the form of heat waves, chained together since long before the summer period began. The current pakistan floods they have also raised all the alarms about the consequences of global warming.
Could seeing this hurricane so far from its most usual points have something to do with the climate change? Intuition may tell us yes, but at the moment it is impossible to know. “There are still not enough studies linking climate change with the presence of tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic”.
But that does not mean that we do not already have meteorological phenomena caused by climate change. Irene Santa is very clear that “we will have to get used to changing the frequency in which they occur extreme weather events”. This includes hurricanes, but also droughts, torrential rains or heat waves, among other phenomena. This is because “the atmosphere now has characteristics different from those of a few decades ago and, therefore, the phenomena that occur in it are also.
For now, the meteorologist clarifies that one of the most tangible consequences, which we can already see, is the variation in the duration of the seasons of the year. “The lengthening of summer, especially at the beginning, subtracting days of spring, but with a tendency to lengthen also at the end, is the most direct consequence that we have observed in recent years.”
In addition, the water of the Mediterranean is warming up to very worrying levels. And this is also a problem, since if there are favorable situations for rains, they could be very intense. “If they arrive DANAS, the rains could be stronger in the Mediterranean area due to the contribution of energy that the warm surface water supposes”. This again is something that cannot be known in advance, but it is likely to happen.
In short, whether or not the hurricane finally reaches Spain, it is clear that it is something very different from what we are used to. And, although we do not know if it is related to climate change, what is clear is that it is already wreaking havoc. The hurricane would only be one more among all that we already have and what remains to come.