Galloping inflation of 43.6% in April of this year (85% at the end of 2022, the second highest among the members of the G20), the devaluation of the lira – which in five years lost 80% of its value with respect to the dollar-, youth unemployment that registered a rate of 19% in 2022 and the meddling policies of the president towards the Central Bank that merged with the destruction caused by the earthquake with costs equivalent to 4% of GDP, made us believe that Erdogan did not would get him re-elected.
We were certainly wrong, because the president renewed his term for another five years and positioned himself as an infallible politician and undisputed leader of the first quarter century of Turkish politics. The humanitarian tragedy of the earthquake with more than 50,000 dead and 100,000 injured and the uncovering of an extensive real estate corruption network woven between the government and developers who broke all legal codes did not play against the president. Erdogan managed to encapsulate the public debate on the earthquake by winning the second round in all 11 affected provinces, thanks to the tight control he exercises over the media and considering that almost 80% of the population cannot read languages other than Turkish.
Precisely, the authoritarian drift of the president, the uneven ground of the electoral contest and the construction of the sultanate concentrated in the figure of Erdogan as head of State and Government, leader of the ruling party and at the same time of the national police and the armed forces They clouded the temper of change. By transforming the Constitution into a hyper-presidential system, Erdogan acts as a “caliph”, the one who despises the electoral norms, exploits the Islamic-religious agenda, while amassing more controls over the bureaucracy, the judiciary and the media. Let’s not forget the change in the electoral law in 2022 that allowed his party (Justice and Development or AKP) to maintain a majority in the General Assembly in alliance with the Nationalist Movement and Welfare parties.
Erdogan also based his victory on the spread of nationalist sentiment and anti-immigrant humor that Sinan Ogan was able to exploit, who attracted 5.2% of the total vote during the first round and promised a tough policy against migrants, returning Syrians to their country, still at war and break with the treaty of the European Union. Let’s remember that this far-right leader supported Erdogan in the run-up to the ballot.
On the other hand, the ruling party was in charge of covering up abuses, economic mismanagement, corruption and the reduction of freedoms, diverting attention towards Turkey’s industrial, military and international achievements under the command of Erdogan, extolling Turkey’s growing status. as an “international power”, and presenting the Kurds (Turkey’s largest ethnic minority) as a whole and without distinction as a threat to national security and as a terrorist group.