Elon Musk has updated its predictions on the first manned mission to Mars and, again, the date is a little later than the previous one. While NASA made perhaps more realistic predictions early on, SpaceX began by announcing a surprisingly early date. However, this has been postponed every so often, with a latest update that already places the launch in 2029.
The reason, beyond pandemics and armed conflicts, seems to be related to the fact that the shuttle star ship that would be used for the trip is not ready yet. It is true that they have made very important progress in recent months, but not enough to meet their predictions more optimistic.
It should be noted that a trip to Mars from Earth cannot be made at any time. The movement of both planets, as well as other important factors, lead to the existence of only very specific periods, called launch windowswhere you can undertake a trip of this type.
The closest at the moment would be at the end of this year. In fact, it is the one that would have used the European Space Agency (ESA) to send its first rover to Mars had it not been for the severing of its ties with Russia. Then there will be another one at the end of 2024. This is the one you initially chose Elon Muskalthough he soon realized that it would be necessary to wait for the next one, end of 2026. In fact, in December 2021 it still held that date. However, this week the CEO of SpaceX has announced that everything is postponed again until the next window, which will take place between the end of 2028 and the beginning of 2029. Specifically, Musk has announced the delay of the trip to Mars by 2029. Who knows? At this rate, it may end up coinciding with NASA’s predictions.
Travel to the Moon and then to Mars
This year marks half a century since the last time a human being stepped on the Moon. It was with the apollo 17 missionin 1972. Since then, many missions have been sent to our satellite, but none manned.
With this, an attempt has been made to learn a little more about the terrain, so that the new incursions through selenite terrain are safer for the astronauts. In addition, it is intended that the new mission have a renewed air, according to the times, and include at least one woman in the crew. For this purpose, the development Artemis program, to which both NASA and its counterparts from Europe (ESA), Japan (JAXA), Canada (CSA), Brazil (AEB), Australia (ASA) and Mexico (AEM) belong. Initially, the first landing of the mission was scheduled for 2024. However, problems in the development of the space suits and the landing system led to a delay. until 2026.
Once this trip to the Moon is complete, NASA sets its sights on Mars. However, from the beginning it has been announced that this manned mission could not be carried out until 2030s. Instead, Elon Musk has been much more optimistic. His goal is to colonize the red planet as soon as possible, thanks to the use of his Starship reusable shuttle. SpaceX has been working for many years to get everything ready. But perhaps he was too early with the dates.
Elon Musk’s new prediction
The Twitter account SpaceHub made a post this week wondering when humans would first set foot on Mars. In it he made direct mention of Elon Musk asking about his predictions.
Since December 2021, when I was still betting on 2026, the CEO of SpaceX had not given new dates. However, he did respond to this Twitter post with a brief “2029”.
So it seems that the arrival of humans on Mars is delayed again. In Spain this week we have had a small simulation with the haze generated by the dust of the Sahara, but we need more. And for everything to be ready, there are still a few years to go.