Digging deeper into the thirteen-year-old Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem, one comes across interesting patterns organically driven by investor stance and market conditions. With BTC’s cost per transaction dipping to $56.85 on July 14, the ecosystem revealed a cycle where transaction costs invariably fall every four years.
Bitcoin’s cost per transaction is calculated by dividing miners’ revenue by the number of transactions, which implies an unpredictable trend; however, data from Blockchain.com reveals a pattern that many would find satisfying.
Cost per transaction fell more than 81% in July 2022 from its all-time high of $300,331 in May 2021, due to a combination of a prolonged bear market and fewer on-chain transactions due to regulatory hurdles imposed on investors in general.
However, the rise and fall of transaction costs is a pattern that is seen every four years. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin’s cost per transaction has gone through its cycle of ups and downs three times: in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
If history were to repeat itself regardless of market conditions, the cost per transaction would exceed the current all-time high in 2026, which would be accompanied by an eventual drop to around $50.
Overall, miner revenues have also seen a significant decline throughout 2022, with July being the lowest Bitcoin mining revenue month in over two years.
Affected by falling market prices, Bitcoin miners barely made a profit due to the high operating costs associated with mining BTC. However, falling graphics card or GPU prices are going to offset the losses as miners gain access to affordable mining hardware.
With card manufacturers resuming operations following the end of the global chip shortage, GPU prices fell massively, with some cards selling below retail prices. In May 2022, mining hardware prices fell by more than 15% on average, as the market was flooded with equipment.
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