Relief rally hopes rise as BTC price remains stuck within the $34,000-$45,000 range.
Bitcoin (BTC) looks set to test the $43,000 level in March, according to technical setup shared by Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous market analyst.
BTC Rebounds From Strong 2022 Support
Bitcoin’s slide towards $37,000 on March 7 was met with modest buying sentiment, leading to a price rally above $39,000 on March 8. Curiously, the bullish pullback originated around the same upward sloping trendline that serves as an accumulation zone for traders in 2022.
Update after 2 months:
Too many retail investors on derivative exchanges could be a bearish signal.
The good news is that we have some whales who are accumulating $BTC in this price range of 35k-45k lately.
Live Chart https://t.co/N7kJnbe06k pic.twitter.com/gK9AtzGoy6
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) March 8, 2022
Update after 2 months:
Too many retail investors in derivatives exchanges could be a bearish sign.
The good news is that lately we have some whales amassing $BTC in this 35k-45k price range.
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Rekt Capital spotted the successful retest of the trend line in its latest outlook, noting that the move could see Bitcoin rally above $43,100 next, provided it breaks above the green dashed diagonal resistance as shown in the graph below.
“A successful retest here and BTC could repeat last week’s move,” Rekt Capital commented on March 8.
Bitcoin at $30,000?
The interim bullish outlook appeared as Bitcoin remained trapped within a wide trading range, between $34,000 and $45,000, throughout the first quarter of 2022. In doing so, BTC withstood extreme selling pressure leveled by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, including rate hike fears and the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
— Sideways
–32-34k key support, 43-47k key resistance
— Headline algo trading + correlation chop in between
— Mid-term bull. momentum case validated if 43-47k finally breaks (tested several times)
— Sideways = wait for extremes/boundaries to trade, not there yet pic.twitter.com/RsytMYajWf— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) March 8, 2022
— laterally
— Key support at 32-34k, key resistance at 43-47k
— Main algorithmic trade + correlation cut in the middle
— Bullish in the medium term. validated boost case if 43-47k eventually breaks (tested multiple times)
— Laterally = wait for the extremes/limits to be negotiated, they are not there yet
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Filbfilb, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, also noted last weekend that “Bitcoin is range bound on a macro level” but its long-term structure suggests it would break out to the upside.
“In the immediate term, if the 50 DMA and 3-day level can be shown to be supported, a retest of $43,000 and a high time frame level could occur.”said Flibflib, adding that a further break above Bitcoin’s $48,000 yearly pivot level would be “very significant and implied of a fundamental change.”
But Rekt Capital’s bullish setup revealed little chance for Bitcoin to extend its bounce back towards $48,000. This is because the setup resembles a bearish “rising triangle” pattern, a consolidation range that usually sends price lower after its breakout move.
In particular, The profit target of an ascending triangle is calculated by measuring the maximum distance between the two trend lines of the pattern and subtracting it from the breakout level.
The chart below assumes that the breakout point is between $37,500 and $45,000, which means that a successful break below the triangle range could see Bitcoin drop to between $30,000 and $35,000.
Interestingly, both $30,000 and $35,000 have acted as strong support levels in recent history.
Is BTC bottoming out?
Flibflib also singled out the $30,000 level for coinciding with the bottom of Bitcoin’s log regression bands, a “tried and tested” support level.
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“The good news is that Bitcoin has less to fall because it didn’t rise as strongly”said the analyst, adding:
“The confluence with this now at the bottom of the weekly range is significant in our view and supports the idea that we won’t see a drop like in previous cycles.”
Nevertheless, an aggressive capitulation event near the $30,000 level could cause Bitcoin to drop to update its downside target to the 200-week SMA, a “headline level” marking the end of cycles Previous bears in March 2020 and December 2018.
The 200-week SMA hovers around $20,000.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
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