Mercados al día is an exclusive summary of the news that moves the bitcoiner economy. It is sent in advance by email to a list of subscribers and then published every Monday in CriptoNoticias. If you want to have the information in advance, subscribe to the list here.
The current bitcoin (BTC) price correction, which began in mid-November, is neither the largest nor the longest in the history of the first cryptocurrency. However, breaking below the $20,000 level, it is the first time that the price has retraced below the all-time high recorded in the previous cycle. This milestone comes after the Fed announced an interest rate hike of 0.75%, the highest since 1994.
In an analysis of CriptoNoticias this Friday, June 17, when the price remained above USD 20,000, various opinions of analysts who already envisioned the scenario of the loss of the USD 20,000 floor are reflected. And although Bitcon is currently returning to the 20,000 floor, there is still the possibility that this area will not be maintained for a long time.
Arcane Research analysts noted that, in each market cycle, the top of the previous cycle became a new price top. However, they assured that the proximity to that level of 20,000 represented several risks. Not only could it go down to USD 19,000 -as it actually happened-, but there were also possibilities of a subsequent fall to USD 16,000.
Bitcoin below $20,000, analysts weigh in
Most of the analysts’ opinions on the drop in the price of bitcoin below the psychological mark of 20 thousand dollars, reflected this Saturday by CriptoNoticias, agree that there will be further setbacks in the coming days. The various bitcoin price predictions fall in a range between $12,000 and $19,000.
At the time of writing this article, the price of bitcoin is USD 19,300, according to the CriptoNoticias price index. On the afternoon of this Saturday, however, the price of BTC registered a new annual low of USD 17,600.
The downward pressure of the rise in interest rates in the US.
Last Wednesday the 15th, the US Federal Reserve increased its interest rate by 0.75%, or 75 basis points, to leave it in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
This continues with the increases scheduled for this year, which are intended to restrict access to credit, which attempts to curb inflation by restricting consumption. Initially, the price of bitcoin rose from $20,000 to $22,000, but on Thursday it fell again along with stocks, a decline that intensified this Saturday.
The increase in consumer prices for the month of May was 8.6%, which represents the highest value of year-on-year inflation in the United States since 1981. Switzerland and the United Kingdom also increased interest rates, the day after the announcement of the Fed, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Featured chart of the week
Despite the bear market, the accumulation of bitcoin is maintained for some segments of the holders. In particularthe so-called shrimp, those with less than 1 BTC, have acquired almost 100,000 BTC since mid-November, when the all-time high of nearly $60,000 occurred.
The 96,300 BTC acquired by these small holders represent almost 0.5% of the supply, thus reaching 5.75% of it. This represents 1,097 million BTC. As can be seen in the graph, the holders that have between 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC, is the segment that has grown, while smaller holders are buying very little. However, this segment does not sell its satoshis either.
Record drop in stocks could be an indicator of recession
In its 95-year history, the Standard & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500) has had only 14 corrections greater than 20%. Last Monday, said stock index registered a fall of 20.5% compared to the beginning of the year, which is assumed by economists as confirmation that there is already a recession underway in the United States.
For this Friday, according to Google datathe fall of the S&P 500 is 23.39% compared to the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq index, for its part, shows a decline of 26.48% in the same period.
Are there months left for bitcoin to bottom out?
Although there are indicators that suggest that the price of bitcoin is close to finding its floor, in the most recent Glassnode report, commented by CriptoNoticias, this analytical firm points out that there are between 8 and 24 months to reach the minimum of this cycleas we report in this medium.
Already the bitcoin spot price is below the 200-week moving average curve and the realized price, which is the price obtained when each BTC is assigned the price it had the last time it changed hands. The same day that the price of bitcoin fell below USD 23,000, CriptoNoticias published several opinions of well-known traders on how to behave in a bear market.
Bitcoin would recover in October, says Mike Novogratz
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the crypto winter will end in the fourth quarter of this year, as reported here. The United States Federal Reserve will relax its policies, since with the measures taken the economy will slow down enough for this organization to pause the increase in interest rates, says the businessman. Not only will a new cycle begin for cryptocurrencies, but cryptocurrencies will become decoupled from stocks, Novogratz contends.