The multi-week rally of the ApeCoin (APE) market is on the verge of petering out due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.
Fundamentals – ApeCoin Launch
In the past two weeks, the APE price has rallied over 50% after bottoming out around $2.60.
The APE/USD rebound came in line with similar recovery moves elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market.. However, it outperformed major assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as traders pinned their hopes on ApeCoin’s debut.
ApeCoin Staking feature will debut on December 5 on apestake.io, according to its developer Horizon Labs. It will allow users to lock up their APE holdings in four staking pools—ApeCoin pool, BAYC pool, MAYC pool, and Paired pool—that will allow them to earn performance periodically.
The announcement of the feature has caused an increase in the number of APE holders, according to data tracked by Dune Analytics. Specifically, on December 2 it reached 103,591, compared to 94,775 a month ago, which, combined with the rise in prices, shows an increase in demand for cash APE.
But analysts fear that ApeCoin staking will become a news sellout event. For example, Altcoin Sherpa says that one should not buy APE in anticipation of a continued run to $5 after staking launches.
Altcoin Sherpa:
“You can probably go long contracts until staking starts, and then you can go short […] I wouldn’t buy here personally, but would wait for a break/retest.”
Technician: 30% APE Price Correction Ahead?
Meanwhile, technical data suggests that the ApeCoin price may decline by at least 30% by the end of December.
The daily chart shows the APE price entering a correction as it tests its multi-month downtrend line resistance near $4.50.. This move is reminiscent of price pullbacks seen multiple times since August, as shown below.
Each correction cycle highlighted in the chart above is exhausted when the APE reaches the lower end of the Bollinger band. The $2.80 – $2.50 range comes into play if this fractal repeats, down as much as 30% from current price levels.
Conversely, a break above the downtrend line resistance could invalidate the bearish setup, sending APE price to its main bullish target near the 200-week exponential moving average (the blue wave) near the $6.
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