Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling from the uptrend as the new week begins.
After closing the weekly candle just below $27,000, BTC/USD is attempting to cement support as a stubborn trading zone holds.
Last week saw a flash drop below $26,000which made traders fear a bigger breakout.
Although this has not materialized, the nerves remain both in the shortest and longest terms.
Where are prices headed? A relatively quiet week in terms of macroeconomic factors means less chance of volatility from external sources.
Add to this the upcoming difficulty adjustment, which will take it to another all-time high, and it could make a case for a bullish continuation..
Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the main factors that will affect the price of BTC during the new week.
Bitcoin price weekly close offers mixed signals
After a weekly close around $26,930, bitcoin is already heading higher, hitting $27,550 overnightas data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show.
While encouraging, the shutdown marked the weakest for bitcoin since mid-March.something popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital is well aware of.
In part of the day’s Twitter analysis, he warned that $27,600 was now the level that would break through support.
“First, BTC failed to recapture the $28,800 level on the Weekly (orange). And then BTC Weekly closed below $27,600, failing to hold it as support (black)”, summarized next to a chart showing recent weekly time frame events.
“If we turn $27,600 into resistance, this could allow for a further drop towards the $20,000 lower zone.”
That prospect reinforces existing warnings from the weekend. and joins a small group of well-known experts who are still thinking about the possibility of a significant pullback in the price of BTC.
Continuing, however, Rekt Capital now sounded more bullish on bitcoin in general, looking beyond the current correction and its potential target..
“Bitcoin has already broken its downtrend. Now it’s about continuing the new uptrend,” He said in another tweet.
“Whether a retest is necessary or not is the question. But history suggests that the medium to long-term outlook looks bullish.”
On weekly time frames, the key trend line ahead remains the 200-week moving average (WMA), which at $26,200 has already received its first retest..
Rekt Capital described the retest as “successful”, but reiterated the need to recover the USD 27,600 next.
“The situation is very dynamic right now,” he added..
Litecoin leads bitcoin
Others gave more credence to the stock’s strength of short-term rebound in the new week.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, described the BTC/USD pair as “ready for the continuation”.
“If we hold the crucial $27,000 level, we are in for a potential run to the highs,” He said part of a Twitter update, adding that Litecoin (LTC) was giving a taste of what might be to come.
The LTC/USD pair is up more than 8% in the 24 hours prior to the writing of this articlereaching its highest level since May 6.
The popular trader Mustache also preferred the longer-term trend.which considered that current weaker price movements such as bitcoin and altcoins are taking a “breather.”
“Opinion hasn’t changed. They’re just taking a breather before things get really crazy.” commented in a graph of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.
“To the bassists: I’ll say it once and never again. You cannot compare a monthly chart with a daily chart.”
The trader and analyst Trader Tardigrade, aka Alan, made similar bullish forecasts based on weekly bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings..
For him, even the weekly closing was cause for optimism.
#Bitcoin weekly candle closed.
We’ve seen $BTC closed above a major support with stop hunt done.
RSI stays above 50 indicating a Bull bias.#BTC #Crypto pic.twitter.com/VXg6kM78dQ— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) May 15, 2023
Closed bitcoin weekly candle. We have seen BTC close above major support with a stop hunt done. The Relative Strength Index remains above 50, indicating a bullish bias. #BTC #Crypto pic.twitter.com/VXg6kM78dQ
Fed speaker flood to culminate with Chairman Powell
Those looking for some macroeconomic triggers for risky asset prices may be left out this week as events in the United States are headed for calm.
After the publication of several macroeconomic data the previous week, the event of the next few days will be the speech of Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve, on May 19.
As the financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter points out, a total of 14 Federal Reserve officials will deliver comments in the coming days, and there are plenty of potential conflicts.
You can’t make this up, here the Fed members speaking this week:
1. Bostic – Thursday
2. Kashkari – Monday
3. Barkin – Monday
4. Cook – Monday
5. Mester – Tuesday
6. Bostic – Tuesday
7. Barr – Tuesday
8. Logan – Tuesday
9.Jefferson-Thursday
10. Barr – Thursday
11. Logan-…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 14, 2023
Here are the Fed members who will be speaking this week:
1. Bostic – Monday
2. Kashkari – Monday
3. Barkin – Monday
4. Cook – Monday
5. Mester – Tuesday
6. Bostic – Tuesday
7. Barr – Tuesday
8. Logan – Tuesday
9. Jefferson – Thursday
10. Barr – Thursday
11.Logan-…
kobeissi added that volatility “should start to return to markets” as a result.
Another point of interest is the strength of the US dollar. In a market update on May 12, the trading firm A return to the downside in the US dollar index (DXY) was considered by QCP Capital to be the key event needed for risky assets to get the green light.
“We see USD strength as the main reason limiting BTC, which has led to market reflexivity blaming known bearish factors.such as the upcoming big bid from the US government and Mt. Gox,” he said.
The DXY experienced a week of recovery until May 14: bounced off 101, near its lowest levels since April of last year.
BTC mining difficulty set to resume all-time highs
In a return to what has become classic behavior in 2023, Bitcoin network difficulty is once again close to reaching new all-time highs.
After his previous adjustment caused a slight setback, the difficulty should increase by around 2% this week.according to BTC.com estimates.
This will mark the continuation of an upward trend in difficulty.which has marked most of the year, in which the competition for block grants among miners is firmly in “upside only” mode.
The trend has not been affected by the recent short-lived turmoil in the fee markets, and as Cointelegraph reported, the income of miners has increased dramatically as a result.
After a tough 2022, with BTC up 65% YTD and transaction fees rising due to ordinals, Bitcoin miners are now bringing in the most revenue they have in over a year at roughly $40 million a day pic.twitter.com/kWbyIGoGRR
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) May 10, 2023
After a rough 2022, BTC is up 65% on the year, and transaction fees are up due to Ordinals, bitcoin miners are bringing in the most revenue they’ve had in over a year: about USD 40 million a day pic.twitter.com/kWbyIGoGRR
The accompanying estimates of the hash rate, depending on the source, likewise show that processing power dedicated to mining is at or near all-time highs.
The cooling of the market is accompanied by an injection of confidence
There is some much-needed relief for those concerned about the overt “greed” plaguing the cryptocurrency markets, as sentiment has been restored in recent days.
After reaching its highest levels since November 2021, Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index shows irrational exuberance taking a major hit thanks to recent cross asset price crash.
As of May 15, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index measures 50/100exactly halfway between its two extremes and characteristic of “neutral” market sentiment.
In today’s coverage, the research firm Santiment noted that the recent hype around memecoins has also dissipated; interest has returned to stablecoins in a general cooling of mood.
“With bitcoin at $27,400 and Ethereum at $1,825, traders continue to be bitter about the fact that markets have been stagnant,” argument.
“Stablecoins are seeing significant rallies in social volume, typically indicative of disinterest in the markets. Polarizing assets like $HEX & $PEPE have fallen big.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Clarification: The information and/or opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views or editorial line of Cointelegraph. The information presented here should not be taken as financial advice or investment recommendation. All investment and commercial movement involve risks and it is the responsibility of each person to do their due research before making an investment decision.
Keep reading:
