One wave of Covid after another, high inflation, skyrocketing interest rates, war and violence, inequality, political polarization, and a likely recession paint a bleak picture for 2023.
With all these problems in Mexico and the world, it is very easy to get discouraged and think that the year that has just begun will be just as difficult or worse than the previous one.. The news that we see daily does not contribute to optimism either and can even sink us more emotionally.
There are two options: the first, no longer watch the news; and the second, to look for the positive angles and the opportunities that are presented in this coming year.
It is not about ‘hiding’ the bad news or ignoring what is happening in our environment, but about analyzing what can be done and what can be improved, according to the circumstances and the data.
We live in a very uncertain world but, to add to the certainty, here are four reasons why you can see the year 2023 with more optimism.
1. Inflation begins (finally) to subside
Yes, inflation in Mexico and the United States are still well above the goals set by their central banks, but in recent months they have begun to show signs that they are finally beginning to ease.
In August and September inflation reached its peak with a rate of 8.7%. However, it began to drop in October and November to 8.4 and 7.8%, respectively. An analysis by Banco Base estimates that the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) will also close December at 7.8%. However, this would continue its decline to 5.1% in the last month of this year.
In its monetary policy decision announcement on December 15, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is more optimistic and forecasts that inflation at the end of 2023 will drop to 4.2%much closer to its goal, which is 3% plus/minus one percentage point.
While in our neighbor to the north, inflation seems to have peaked between last July and August, but its decline has been gradual. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) expects the consumer price rate to end 2022 at 5.4%, drop to 3.1% in 2023 and reach 2.1% through 2025, which is the level closest to the US central bank’s target. .
It should be remembered that, according to projections, the central banks of the US and Mexico will continue raising interest rates during 2023, until seeing clear signs that inflation is being controlled. The battle is not over yet, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
2. More savings opportunities
And as interest rates continue to rise in Mexico and the United States (and in most of the world), the cost of credit will increase. This can be seen as something negative, but it is precisely what central banks are looking for to control inflation: discourage credit by making it more expensive.which decreases consumption and, therefore, the demand for products and services, thus releasing upward pressure on prices.
Just as high rates discourage credit, they can also encourage savings and investment. 2022 was a difficult year for the Stock Markets and variable income instruments. Secondly, some fixed income instruments, such as bonds, may provide safer returns and attractive.
“With more attractive rates, 2023 could be a year that favors investment in bonds,” says the investment firm Franklin Templeton in a report, citing Cetes as an example, which last year they delivered returns close to 11%. While long-term government debt (Udibonos and Bonds) outperformed its US government peers by more than 18%.
If you had any bonus left over or you have money to invest, you can explore options in this article: 3 Investments That Give You Returns Above Inflation.
3. Less political tension
2022 was a year in which the government opted to carry out constitutional reforms, despite not having the required qualified majority in Congress. The electricity reform and electoral reform proposals caused a lot of controversy because they changed the rules in two strategic sectors of Mexico: energy and the electoral system.
Both initiatives did not obtain the qualified majority necessary to be approved, while a reform that transfers the National Guard, a civilian corporation, to the control of the Army, is being fought in courts.
So far, López Obrador has not announced that he will send other far-reaching reform initiatives during 2023which undoubtedly contributes to lowering the political tension in the country.
On the political scene, there will be two state elections this year: the State of Mexico and Coahuila, while Congress must appoint four new advisors to the National Electoral Institute (INE), with a view to the 2024 elections. Surya Palacios explains to us in this article What is the battle that will take place in the Legislative Branch this year?
4. More vacations for Mexicans
If the three previous reasons didn’t lift your spirits, this one surely will: starting in 2023, people who have been in their current job for more than a year They will enjoy 12 days of continuous vacationyes, double what was previously established by law.
This is thanks to the reforms of articles 76 and 78 of the Federal Labor Law, and two working days will be increased each year until it reaches five and 20 days. While from 6 to 10 years old two days will be increased, from 11 to 15 years old another two days, and so on.
Also, as there are more vacation days, companies will have to pay more for vacation premium; that is to say, they will have to disburse 25% of the salary for each day of vacation.
Companies and human resources organizations point out that the increase in paid vacation days will imply higher labor costs and problems to cover the increase in days of absence of the worker.
And although these concerns may be legitimate, the truth is that Mexico was one of the countries with the fewest vacation days and, the member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where more hours are worked per year, with an average of 2,137 hours.
An OCC Mundial survey of 2,600 professionals showed that these are the 5 strategies for companies to make the increase in vacation days effective:
1. Good organization (73%)
2. Work by objectives (53%)
3. Taking advantage of technological tools (44%)
4. Effective leadership (43%)
5. Effective assignment of tasks (42%)
MORE NEWS:
Francisco Mucino Journalist. Public finance, energy, business, innovation and the stories they contain.